A Tutorial on Quantitative Easing 2008 – 2014

I found this very cool slide deck by professor Ed Dolan, explaining in very simple terms Quantitative Easing as done by the Fed from 2008 to 2014. A textbook model explaining what worked and what did not. Enjoy!

Check out some of Dr. Dolan’s other posts on his blog, available here.

Regulation, liquidity and cheap insurance – Thoughts and trade ideas

The last few days have been quite a rollercoaster ride for market participants, and the “correction” in equities and rates has left a lot of people counting losses. Not a pretty sight. Reasons put forward for the moves have been several: stretched positioning, herd behaviour by asset managers, the usual “it’s the algos stopping out”, and, on a broader level, regulation and the impact it’s having on liquidity in most asset markets.

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Basel III for Dummies – All you need to know about Basel III in 10 minutes

A very simple and understandable overview of the impact of Basel III on banks’ balance sheets by BNP. A good starting point for non – practitioners.

A Brief History of Notable Market Bubbles [INFOGRAPHIC] – Courtesy of ValueWalk.com and VisualCapitalist.com

I don’t really want to come across as a fear monger, but this infographic is really worth checking out…

Quoting ValueWalk.com

In today’s insanely connected world, the ability to create and burst market bubbles is even more amplified. For those uninitiated, a bubble is when speculation in a type of security inflates the price far beyond the fundamentals allow. While they can go for years or even decades, eventually reality takes hold and the bubble can crash in a much shorter time frame. In just the last 15 years, two notable bubbles were popped in the Dot-Com and housing markets.

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O Inflation, Inflation! Where art thou Inflation?

As we still digest this week’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, I have put together an overview of what is going on in the world, and where I think we are heading.

In particular I have recently been thinking a lot about inflation, or lack of any, that we are witnessing on a global scale. Whether this trend reverses in the coming months will be extremely important for both Wall Street and Main Street.

I am pretty confident that this will not happen, that deflation or flat lining prices are here to stay, and this will lead to anaemic growth for quite a few years, as debt sustainability will continue to be an issue. Here’s why. Continue reading

U.S. infrastructure. It’s time to do something about it.

Anyone who has some international travel experience knows that airports provide visitors with the first impression of a host country, and first impressions matter.

I must have travelled to the U.S. about 10 times, but I still remember vividly the first time I flew over to New York JFK. When I got there, I was welcomed by a sense of chaos, queues, and of a place that felt generally “old”, as did the rest of the United States infrastructure. Airport runways, roads, railways were and still are far below the standards expected from a country that’s seen by many as the centre for innovation, where stuff gets “done” and when, if something does not work, it gets fixed.

The discussion about the States’ crumbling roads and bridges and inadequate airports and railways is not new, but little has been done by a stalling Congress to address the issues, as the ballooning deficit eats into the funds required to maintain, let alone improve the existing network.
It is no surprise, therefore, that the latest Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, issued by the American Society of Civil Engineers every 4 years, gives the US a disappointing D+.

Source: Financial Times; ASCE

Source: Financial Times; ASCE

The issues that need to be solved are several Continue reading

Take it easy, Janet!

This week’s FOMC meeting got quite a few observers worried that the market might be pricing in too benign a path for US rates when compared to the median forecasts for Fed Funds issued by the Committee for the next two years.

Market Pricing vs. Fed Forecasts - IIF

As markets start getting a little jittery, three themes in particular have caught my attention, amidst the ton of material that has been published over the last few days. Here’s an overview, with links to all relevant references. And no, I won’t mention Scotland…  Continue reading